I just fucked up a run because I forgot you need Kuribu poms for Nybbas/his adds, and burned the only one I had soon as I went in (since I used the other two for treasure rooms). You’re gonna wipe in the 30s, prolly again in the 40s, and maybe once more before you hit 100. Really, the thing with solo runs is accepting losses in the beginning. Silver chests can’t be mimics past fooor 40, so you can open them safely (they can still explode, but that won’t kill ya unless you’re low on health). You don’t even need 99/99 to start – you’ve got 94 floors to get to 99/99 (IIRC that’s the point the level sync drops off) which will be totally doable if you go in with a 70/70 or 80/80. HoH is even faster, as it gives much larger amounts per run. Five hours, maybe? Tops? It’s been a long time since I’ve done it – mine has been capped since like 3.4 or 3.5 – but yeah, it goes quickly. So rather than telling me I’m mouthing off, why don’t you check your understanding of probability? It’s like you learned some new term and are trying to apply it to random places.Īs an aside, aetherpool is actually pretty quick to build – just run 50-100 a couple times in matched parties. Gamblers fallacy only applies if you’ve already opened all the previous boxes, which is not what was suggested in this context. So the commenter you replied to was right statistically they should expect much more than 100 boxes to roll a very rare prize. Your chances of winning a desired prize is many orders of magnitude higher with 10 million unopened boxes than with 1. If p of event is 0.5, with 1 event you have 50% chance of success, with 10 million events you have 99.999999… % chance of success. This is obviously wrong by simple example. Gamblers fallacy certainly does not imply any number of unopened boxes would yield the same expected value, which is what you implied by: I am not debating gambler’s fallacy, I am questioning your application of it to this conversation.
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